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Dynamic analysis of the economic effects of population structural changes in the coming decades of Iran (with emphasis on the role of women)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Phd Candidate, Department of Economics, Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Marand branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran.

4 Assistant Professor, Department of management, Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh, Iran

Abstract

The trend of population growth in the last three decades will cause extensive changes in the age structure of Iran's population. So that it can be one of the most important challenges of the country in the coming decades. This development will have different effects and consequences in the process of social, economic and political development. In this research, with the aim of dynamic analysis of the economic effects of the structural changes of the age groups (the age group of the workforce) of Iran's population in the coming decades until 1455, and then the role of women's labor force in the process of gross domestic product is studied and review puts. Therefore, this research aims to understand more about the structural changes of the population in four age groups (under 15 years, between 15 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years and over 65 years) in the past decades, the present and its future forecast; Using the global model "World3" modeling of dynamic systems to simulate the country's population trend from 1355 to 1455, with "Vensim" software, it has predicted the structural changes of the population. Forecasts show that based on the probable fertility rate of 1.6 (announcement of the researches of the Statistics Center), the growth trend of the entire country's population will be increasing until 1425, and the trend will decrease from this year onwards. Also, until 1455, the growth trend of the population in the age group below 15 years will be decreasing, and the growth trend in the age group of the workforce (between 15-44 years, 45-64 years) will increase until 1415, and from this year onwards, the trend will decrease. According to the forecast, the growth trend in the age group above 65 years will increase. The findings show that the demographic trend of working age will happen about 10 years earlier than the decreasing trend of the total population. Therefore, to compensate for the deficit of economically active labor and improve the production process and increase per capita; Considering the existing capacity in the country, increasing the employment of women will be one of the most effective solutions in this crisis. In the following, a dynamic economic model is presented using Solow's growth model. To show how the effects of changes in the labor force pattern will be on the growth process of gross domestic production. Then the operational scenarios related to increasing the employment of women in the growth of production and the growth and development of the country; Provided. Also, practical and operational suggestions have been presented regarding how to reduce the side effects of population structural changes and its negative effects on the growth of domestic production (GDP) by establishing women's employment in the country's economic cycle.

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References
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Woman in Development & Politics
Volume 22, Issue 1
April 2024
Pages 1-37
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