Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Demography, University of Tehran, Iran

2 M.A. in Demography, University of Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Increased rate of unemployment and growth of divorce are instances of a risky society that can affect women and men’s decisions about family formation. The present study aims to investigate the relationship between the indicators of risky society and the mean age at first marriage among women and men in Iran. The paper uses the district-level data from the 2011 Iranian census. The results show that these indicators explain a considerable proportion of district-level differences in age at marriage (51% of the variation in the mean age at first marriage of men and 38% of the variation in the mean age at first marriage of women). In particular, economic indicators (i.e. unemployment rate and unemployment rate among highly educated people) have the greatest positive impact on the mean age at first marriage among both men and women. Furthermore, among factors measuring the risk of marriage breakdown, the percentage of divorced men has a positive impact on the mean age at first marriage among both sexes. Thus, actions towards job creation and higher stability of marriage can be expected to reduce the risk factors associated with marriage and facilitate its formation.

Keywords

[1] ترابی، فاطمه؛ عسکری ندوشن، عباس (1391). «پویایی ساختار سنی جمعیت و تغییرات ازدواج در ایران»، نامۀ انجمن جمعیت‌شناسی ایران، دورۀ 7، ش 13، ص5ـ23.
[2] سازمان ثبت احوال کشور (1390). سال‌نامة آماری ثبت احوال 1390، قابل دسترس در www.sabteahval.ir.
[3] صادقی، رسول؛ قدسی، علی‌محمد؛ افشار‌کهن، جواد (1386). «واکاوی مسئلة ازدواج و اعتبار‌سنجی یک راه‌حل»، پژوهش زنان، دورۀ 5، ش 1، ص83ـ108.
[4] طالب، مهدی؛ گودرزی، محسن (1382). «قومیت، نابرابری آموزشی و تحولات جمعیتی»، نامة علوم اجتماعی، ش21، ص 113ـ142.
[5] لبیبی، محمد‌مهدی؛ حیدری ورنامخواستی، لیدا (1392). جامعه‌شناسی تاریخی ازدواج، تهران: علم.
[6] محمودیان، حسین (1383). «سن ازدواج در حال افزایش: بررسی عوامل پشتیبان»، نامة علوم اجتماعی، ش24، ص27ـ53.
[7] میرزایی، محمد (1386). گفتاری در باب جمعیت‌شناسی کاربردی، تهران: دانشگاه تهران، چ5.
[8] مرکز آمار ایران (1390 الف). نتایج آمارگیری از نیروی کار 1390، قابل دسترسی در www.amar.org.ir.
[9] مرکز آمار ایران (1390 ب). نتایج سرشماری نفوس و مسکن 1390، قابل دسترسی در www.amar.org.ir.
[10] Aghajanian, Akbar and Vaida Thompson. (2013). Recent Divorce Trend in Iran, Journalof Divorce & Remarriage, 54:2, PP 112-125.
[11] Blossfeld, Hans-Peter and Ursula Jaenichen. (1992). Educational Expansion and Changes in Women's Entry into Marriage and Motherhood in theFederal Republic of Germany. Journal of Marriage and Family, Vol. 54, PP 302-315.
[12] Goldscheider, Frances Kobrin and Linda J. Waite. (1986). Sex Differences in the Entry Into Marriage. The American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 92, 91-109
[13] Gutiérrez-Domènech, Maria. (2008). The Impact of the labor Market on the Timing of Marriage and Births in Spain. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 21, PP 83-110.
[14] Harknett, Kristen and Arielle Kuperberg. (2011). Education, Labor Markets and the Retreat from Marriage. Social Forces,Vol. 90, PP 41-63.
[15] Hogan, Dennis P. (1978). The Effects of Demographic Factors, Family Background, and Early Job Achievement on Age at Marriage. Demography, Vol. 15, PP 161-175.
[16] Lloyd, Kim M. and Scott J. South. (1996). Contextual Influences on Young Men's Transition to First Marriage. Social Forces, Vol. 74, PP 1097-1119.
[17] Maas, Ineke and Richard L. Zijdeman. (2010). Beyond the local marriage market:The influence of modernization on geographical heterogamy. Demographic Research, vol. Volume 23, Article 33, PP 933-962.
[18] McDonald, Peter. (2006). Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy, Population and Development Review, Vol. 32, No. 3, PP 485-510.
[19] Mitchell, Robert Edward. (1971). Changes in Fertility Rates and Family Size in Response to Changes in Age at Marriage, the Trend Away from Arranged Marriages, and Increasing Urbanization. Population Studies, Vol. 25, PP 481-489.
[20] Oppenheimer, Valerie Kincade. (1988). A Theory of Marriage Timing. American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 94, PP 563-591.
[21] Torabi, Fatemeh, Angela Baschieri, Lynda Clarke, and Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi. (2013). Marriage Postponement in Iran: Accountingfor Socio-economic and Cultural Change in Time and Space. Popul. Space Place 19(3), PP 258-274.
[22] White, Lynn K. (1981). A Note on Racial Differences in the Effect of Female Economic Opportunity on Marriage Rates. Demography, Vol. 18, PP 349-354.