economics
Omran Gheisar; Sima Eskandari Sabzi; ali salmanpour; Seyed Yosef Hajiasghari
Abstract
The trend of population growth in the last three decades will cause extensive changes in the age structure of Iran's population. So that it can be one of the most important challenges of the country in the coming decades. This development will have different effects and consequences in the process of ...
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The trend of population growth in the last three decades will cause extensive changes in the age structure of Iran's population. So that it can be one of the most important challenges of the country in the coming decades. This development will have different effects and consequences in the process of social, economic and political development. In this research, with the aim of dynamic analysis of the economic effects of the structural changes of the age groups (the age group of the workforce) of Iran's population in the coming decades until 1455, and then the role of women's labor force in the process of gross domestic product is studied and review puts. Therefore, this research aims to understand more about the structural changes of the population in four age groups (under 15 years, between 15 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years and over 65 years) in the past decades, the present and its future forecast; Using the global model "World3" modeling of dynamic systems to simulate the country's population trend from 1355 to 1455, with "Vensim" software, it has predicted the structural changes of the population. Forecasts show that based on the probable fertility rate of 1.6 (announcement of the researches of the Statistics Center), the growth trend of the entire country's population will be increasing until 1425, and the trend will decrease from this year onwards. Also, until 1455, the growth trend of the population in the age group below 15 years will be decreasing, and the growth trend in the age group of the workforce (between 15-44 years, 45-64 years) will increase until 1415, and from this year onwards, the trend will decrease. According to the forecast, the growth trend in the age group above 65 years will increase. The findings show that the demographic trend of working age will happen about 10 years earlier than the decreasing trend of the total population. Therefore, to compensate for the deficit of economically active labor and improve the production process and increase per capita; Considering the existing capacity in the country, increasing the employment of women will be one of the most effective solutions in this crisis. In the following, a dynamic economic model is presented using Solow's growth model. To show how the effects of changes in the labor force pattern will be on the growth process of gross domestic production. Then the operational scenarios related to increasing the employment of women in the growth of production and the growth and development of the country; Provided. Also, practical and operational suggestions have been presented regarding how to reduce the side effects of population structural changes and its negative effects on the growth of domestic production (GDP) by establishing women's employment in the country's economic cycle.
Geography
Aboozar Vafaei; Kamran Dolat Yarian
Abstract
Parks and green public spaces are parts of the ecological fabric of cities to the extent that environmental life and the sustainability of cities depend on them. The aim of this research is to measure the level of citizens’ satisfaction with the quality of urban parks. The example studied is Women's ...
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Parks and green public spaces are parts of the ecological fabric of cities to the extent that environmental life and the sustainability of cities depend on them. The aim of this research is to measure the level of citizens’ satisfaction with the quality of urban parks. The example studied is Women's Laleh Park in the city of Noorabad. To this end, efforts were made to evaluate and analyze the success or the failure of the quality of the park from the point of view of women. The current research is a quantitative research in terms of its purpose in the field of applied research and has deployed a descriptive-analytical approach based on the nature of the data.The statistical population of this research included all women who came to Laleh Park in a span from May to December 2022. The sample size included 200 women; this sample was assessed using Sample Power software with a confidence level of %95, a possible error of %5, and an alpha value of 0.01, 0.03, and 0.05. For data analysis, SPSS26 software was used due to its statistical capabilities, and AMOS24 software was deployed for structural equation modeling. To answer the hypotheses of the research, at the first stage, criteria and sub-criteria that explained the satisfaction of the multiple dimensions of women's park were compiled through documentary and library studies. Then, a questionnaire, consisting of 66 questions in the form of a five-point Likert scale, was designed and distributed among the women who came to Laleh Park. The distribution of the questionnaire was also done using a systematic sampling method during the peak hours of women’s visiting of this public space. It should be noted that the measuring scales included 6 general questions, 10 questions on safety and security, 10 social-cultural questions, 10 physical questions, 10 questions about health and environment, 10 questions about the furniture and environment of the park, and 10 questions about physical and mental health.In total, the results obtained from the current research are as follows. In an overall evaluation of the quality of Laleh Park, the findings showed that most of the studied sites were of low quality, and there were many weak points. The results also showed that the condition of Laleh Park was favorable in terms of quality in 3 items. 18 items were semi-optimal, and other 38 items had unfavorable status. Also, the results of the analysis of the second-order factor model showed that according to the women, participating in the research, satisfaction with physical-physical factors with a factor load of 0.86 had the highest priority and had the first place. After the physical-physical factor, the health and environmental index came second with a factor load of 0.78. The third rank belonged to park furniture index with a factor weight of 0.73. Further, it was found that safety and security index with a weight of 0.68 was in the fourth place, the health index with a weight of 0.58 came fifth. The cultural and social index was in the sixth place with a weight of 0.48.
