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تحلیل پویا از تاثیرات اقتصادی تحولات ساختاری جمعیت در دهه های آتی کشور ایران ( با تاکید بر نقش زنان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی توسعۀ اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، واحد میانه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، میانه، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد میانه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، میانه، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران

4 استادیار گروه مدیریت، واحد میانه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، میانه، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به اینکه جمعیت و تحولات آن یکی از چالشی ترین مسائل دهه های آتی کشور خواهد بود و تاثیرات و پیامدهای مختلف اجتماعی و اقتصادی و سیاسی و ... با خود به دنبال خواهد داشت. این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل پویای تاثیرات اقتصادی تحولات ساختاری جمعیت در دهه های پیش رو با تاکید بر نقش زنان به مطالعه و بررسی این روند می پردازد. لذا این پژوهش برای درک بیشتر از تحولات ساختاری جمعیت (در چهارگروه سنی) درگذشته، حال و پیش بینی آینده آن؛ با مدل سازی سیستم های پویا به شبیه سازی روند جمعیت کشور از سال 1355 تا 1455، با نرم افزار «Vensim» به پیش بینی تحولات ساختاری جمعیت پرداخته است. یافته های پژوهش نشان داد روند جمعیتی سنین کار از سال 1415 به صورت کاهشی خواهد بود؛ یعنی این روند حدود 10 سال قبل تر از روند کاهشی جمعیت کل، اتفاق خواهد افتاد. بنابراین برای جبران کسری نیروی کار فعال اقتصادی و بهبود روند تولید افزایش اشتغال زنان یکی از کار آمدترین راهکارهای موثر دراین بحران خواهد بود. همچنین به ازای اعمال سیاست افزایش سالیانه 100 هزار نیروی کار فعال اقتصادی زنان در الگوی ارائه شده در سال 1455 میزان نیروی کار فعال بانوان از 83/4 میلیون نفر به 81/8 میلیون نفر افزایش می یابد. حاصل این سیاست باعث افزایش 2.5 درصدی تولید کشور خواهد شد. لذا فراهم سازی حضور بانوان در فعالیتهای اقتصادی می تواند یکی از عوامل موثر بر تولید و اشتغال باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Dynamic analysis of the economic effects of population structural changes in the coming decades of Iran (with emphasis on the role of women)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Omran Gheisar 1
  • Sima Eskandari Sabzi 2
  • ali salmanpour 3
  • Seyed Yosef Hajiasghari 4

1 Phd Candidate, Department of Economics, Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Marand branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran.

4 Assistant Professor, Department of management, Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh, Iran

چکیده [English]

The trend of population growth in the last three decades will cause extensive changes in the age structure of Iran's population. So that it can be one of the most important challenges of the country in the coming decades. This development will have different effects and consequences in the process of social, economic and political development. In this research, with the aim of dynamic analysis of the economic effects of the structural changes of the age groups (the age group of the workforce) of Iran's population in the coming decades until 1455, and then the role of women's labor force in the process of gross domestic product is studied and review puts. Therefore, this research aims to understand more about the structural changes of the population in four age groups (under 15 years, between 15 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years and over 65 years) in the past decades, the present and its future forecast; Using the global model "World3" modeling of dynamic systems to simulate the country's population trend from 1355 to 1455, with "Vensim" software, it has predicted the structural changes of the population. Forecasts show that based on the probable fertility rate of 1.6 (announcement of the researches of the Statistics Center), the growth trend of the entire country's population will be increasing until 1425, and the trend will decrease from this year onwards. Also, until 1455, the growth trend of the population in the age group below 15 years will be decreasing, and the growth trend in the age group of the workforce (between 15-44 years, 45-64 years) will increase until 1415, and from this year onwards, the trend will decrease. According to the forecast, the growth trend in the age group above 65 years will increase. The findings show that the demographic trend of working age will happen about 10 years earlier than the decreasing trend of the total population. Therefore, to compensate for the deficit of economically active labor and improve the production process and increase per capita; Considering the existing capacity in the country, increasing the employment of women will be one of the most effective solutions in this crisis. In the following, a dynamic economic model is presented using Solow's growth model. To show how the effects of changes in the labor force pattern will be on the growth process of gross domestic production. Then the operational scenarios related to increasing the employment of women in the growth of production and the growth and development of the country; Provided. Also, practical and operational suggestions have been presented regarding how to reduce the side effects of population structural changes and its negative effects on the growth of domestic production (GDP) by establishing women's employment in the country's economic cycle.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Demographic structure changes in Iran
  • economic effects
  • System dynamics
  • women'
  • s role
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