بررسی تاثیر تقسیم‌کار جنسیتی در منزل بر رفتار باروری زنان با استفاده از شبیه‌سازی عامل‌بنیان

اسمعیلی, نصیبه; رازقی نصرآباد, حجیه بی بی

doi:10.22059/jwdp.2024.381114.1008472

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استادیار گروه جمعیت‌شناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

² دانشیار گروه جمعیت‌شناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22059/jwdp.2024.381114.1008472

چکیده

با کاهش باروری به زیر سطح جانشینی، نحوۀ تقسیم‌کار جنسیتی در منزل به‌عنوان یکی از عوامل تعیین‌کنندۀ تصمیمات و رفتارهای باروری مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. هدف مقالۀ حاضر، بررسی و پیش‌بینی نحوۀ تقسیم‌کار جنسیتی در منزل بر رفتار باروری زنان استان تهران با استفاده از ابزار مدلسازی عامل‌بنیان است. برای این منظور، از بخشی از داده‌های طرح تحولات باروری در استان تهران (سال 1396) استفاده شد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی حاکی از روند تند کاهش باروری در ده سال آینده در استان تهران است. براساس این نتایج، پیش‌بینی می‌شود میزان باروری کل در استان تهران در سال 1408 به 06/1 فرزند برسد. در ادامه، سناریوهای کاهش و افزایش مشارکت مردان در تقسیم‌کار جنسیتی در منزل در نرم‌افزار انی‌لاجیک اجرا شد و براساس این سناریوها، به پیش‌بینی میزان باروری کل استان تهران تا سال 1408 پرداخته شد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی عامل‌بنیان نشان داد در صورت کاهش 15 درصدی مشارکت مردان در تقسیم‌کار جنسیتی در منزل، میزان باروری کل در استان تهران به 03/1 فرزند خواهد رسید. در مقابل، در صورت افزایش 15 درصدی مشارکت مردان در تقسیم‌کار جنسیتی در منزل، میزان باروری کل به 09/1 فرزند در سال 1408 خواهد رسید. در بخش پیشنهادها، براساس نتایج مهم است که سیاست‌های افزایش جمعیت و سیاست‌های دوستدار خانواده، شامل مجموعه‌ای از ارزش‌های فرهنگی و اجتماعی در زمینۀ مشارکت مردان در امور منزل باشد تا بتوان روند کاهش نابرابری جنسیتی را با هدف افزایش باروری تقویت کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

مطالعات زنان

عنوان مقاله [English]

Examining the Impact of Gender Division of Labor at Home on Women’s Reproductive Behavior Using Agent-Based Simulation

نویسندگان [English]

Nasibeh Esmaeili ¹
Hajieh Bibi Razeghi Nasrabad ²

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

The division of gender roles within households has been identified as a critical factor influencing fertility decisions and behaviors, as evidenced by the decline in fertility rates below the replacement level. The objective of this paper is to investigate and anticipate the impact of the division of gender roles in households on the reproductive behavior of women in Tehran province using agent-based modeling (ABM) tools. Data from the 2017 Iran Fertility Transition Survey (IFTS) has been utilized for this purpose. The simulation results suggest that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Tehran province will decrease to 1.06 children by 2029, with a projected precipitous decline in fertility rates over the next decade. Furthermore, the AnyLogic software was employed to implement scenarios that examined the consequences of both reducing and increasing men's involvement in domestic work division. According to these simulations, if male participation decreases by 15%, the TFR could fall to 1.03 children. Conversely, if male participation increases by 15%, the TFR could rise to 1.09 children by 2029. Based on these findings, the recommendations section underscores the necessity for family-friendly policies that prioritize cultural and social values that encourage males to participate in household responsibilities. The objective of this method is to mitigate gender inequality and establish an environment that is conducive to the growth of fertility rates.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Agent-Based Simulation
Family Support Policies
Gender Division of Domestic Labor
Low Fertility

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زن در توسعه و سیاست

بررسی تاثیر تقسیم‌کار جنسیتی در منزل بر رفتار باروری زنان با استفاده از شبیه‌سازی عامل‌بنیان

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 22، شماره 4
دی 1403
صفحه 891-915

بررسی تاثیر تقسیم‌کار جنسیتی در منزل بر رفتار باروری زنان با استفاده از شبیه‌سازی عامل‌بنیان

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 22، شماره 4دی 1403صفحه 891-915

دوره 22، شماره 4
دی 1403
صفحه 891-915