نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• نصیبه اسمعیلی ¹
• حجیه بی بی رازقی نصرآباد ²

¹ استاد یار گروه جمعیت شناسی دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه تهران

² دانشیار جمعیت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

با کاهش باروری به زیر سطح جانشینی، نحوه تقسیم کار جنسیتی در منزل به عنوان یکی از عوامل تعیین‌کننده تصمیمات و رفتارهای باروری مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. هدف مقاله حاضر، بررسی و پیش‌بینی نحوه تقسیم کار جنسیتی در منزل بر رفتار باروری زنان استان تهران با استفاده از ابزار مدلسازی عامل بنیان می‌باشد. برای این منظور، از بخشی از داده‌های طرح تحولات باروری در استان تهران (سال 1396) استفاده شده است. نتایج شبیه‌سازی حاکی از روند سریع کاهش باروری در ده سال آینده در استان تهران است. بر اساس این نتایج، پیش‌بینی می‌شود که میزان باروری کل در استان تهران در سال 1408 به عدد 06/1 فرزند برسد. در ادامه، سناریوهای کاهش و افزایش در مشارکت مردان در تقسیم کار جنسیتی در منزل در نرم‌افزار انی‌لاجیک پیاده‌سازی شد و بر اساس این سناریوها، به پیش‌بینی میزان باروری کل استان تهران تا سال 1408 پرداخته شد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی عامل بنیان نشان داد که در صورت کاهش 15 درصدی مشارکت مردان در تقسیم کار جنسیتی در منزل، میزان باروری کل در استان تهران به 03/1 فرزند خواهد رسید. در مقابل، در صورت افزایش 15 درصدی مشارکت مردان در تقسیم کار جنسیتی در منزل، میزان باروری کل به 09/1 فرزند در سال 1408 خواهد رسید. در بخش پیشنهادها، بر اساس نتایج، مهم است که سیاست‌های افزایش جمعیت و سیاست‌های دوستدار خانواده، شامل مجموعه‌ای از ارزش‌های فرهنگی و اجتماعی در زمینه مشارکت مردان در امور منزل باشد؛ تا بتوان روند کاهش نابرابری جنسیتی را با هدف افزایش باروری تقویت نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• باروری پایین
• تقسیم کار جنسیتی در منزل
• سیاســتهــای حمایتی خــانواده
• مدلسازی عامل بنیان

موضوعات

• مطالعات زنان

عنوان مقاله [English]

Examining the Impact of Gender Division of Labor at Home on Women's Reproductive Behavior Using Agent-Based Simulation

نویسندگان [English]

• Nasibeh Esmaeili ¹
• Hajieh Bibi Razeghi Nasrabad ²

¹ Assistant Professor of Demography, University of Tehran, Tehran ,Iran.

² Associate Professor of Demography, University of Tehran, Tehran ,Iran.

چکیده [English]

Examining the Impact of Gender Division of Labor at Home on Women's Reproductive Behavior Using Agent-Based Simulation



Introduction:

Iran’s fertility has declined to a below-replacement level since the early 2000s (Abbasi-Shavazi et al., 2009; McDonald et al., 2015). The country’s population growth rate has decreased from a peak of 3.9 percent during 1976-1986 to around 0.7 per annum in recent years (Fathi, 2021). The total fertility rate (TFR) dropped from approximately 7 children per woman in 1986 to below the replacement level by 2006. Currently, the national TFR stands at 1.74 children per woman (Fathi et al., 2021). Notably, Tehran province reached a fertility rate below the replacement level four years earlier than the national average, with its current TFR being approximately 1.43 children per woman, which is lower than the national average (Fathi et al., 2021). Numerous studies have been conducted to address the issue of fertility reduction, highlighting the role of the gender division of labor at home as a significant factor influencing women's reproductive behavior (Razaghi - Nasrabad et al., 2021; Khalajabadi -Farahani, 2016; Dorahaki and Nobakht, 2019). Therefore, the present study aims to predict the trend of the TFR in Tehran province through 2029 using an agent-based modeling tool. Additionally, it will explore two scenarios: one that examines an increase in participation in the gender division of labor at home and another that focuses on a decrease, predicting their effects on women's fertility behavior.



Methodology:

The approach taken in this article utilizes the powerful tool of agent-based modeling (ABM) as a new developed intelligent method. This newly developed modeling style can effectively capture the feedback mechanisms between various factors and, unlike traditional mathematical models, it accommodates heterogeneous factors and non-linear relationships. Agent-based modeling facilitates policy analysis by allowing the testing of different policies simultaneously. This enables the implementation of various scenarios as well as social behaviors and reactions which can be analyzed with input from scientific experts (Bijak et al, 2021). The agent-based modeling is the best method to consider the heterogeneity of women at the micro level which leads to more realistic results compared to those of previous studies. It can also be used in similar economic situations for all members of the society at the macro level to establish a link between the micro and macro levels (Billari et al., 2006; Bavel and Grow, 2016). ABM is a suitable method that can help policymakers in realizing their goals by adopting effective and targeted policies. In ABM, fictitious communities can be modeled in software form, and these models can be used as a computational laboratory to analyze theories and policies. The method of ABM with the creation of a connection between micro and macro levels enables the accuracy, purposefulness, and satisfaction of policies by involving the perspective of the micro level in policies (Billari, 2015; Bijak et al, 2021). In this style of modeling, based on the interactions between the agents at the micro level, a set of responses under the title of outputs and behavior is created, which is formed from the aggregation of these outputs at the macro level. Because this modeling pattern starts from the micro level and leads to the macro level, it is called micro-to-macro modeling or bottom-up modeling. The creation of a connection between the micro level and macro level as a considerable property of ABM approach has been addressed by other scholars as reported by (Fent et al., 2013; Baroni et al., 2009). The current research including the model development and data analysis have been conducted in a virtual laboratory. In this space, we will design a more realistic model of the complex low fertility system of Tehran province, emphasizing gender equality and focusing on the variables that influence the increasing and decreasing gender division of labor at home. Based on this model, we will simulate scenarios related to these variables. This study utilized a sub-sample from the 'Iran Fertility Transition Survey' (IFTS) as referenced by Abbasi-Shavazi et al. (2019). The statistical population for the present study comprises all households residing in Tehran province, with a sample size of 784 married women.



Result

The simulation results indicate a significant trend of decreasing fertility in Tehran province over the next ten years. Specifically, it is projected that the TFR in Tehran will fall to 1.06 children by the year 2029. Additionally, simulations were conducted using Any Logic software to explore scenarios involving changes in the division of labor at home concerning gender equality. Findings from the agent-based simulations reveal that a 15% decrease in participation in household labor division could further lower the predicted TFR from 1.06 to 1.03 children in 2029. Conversely, if there is a 15% increase in participation in the division of gendered work at home, the TFR is expected to rise from 1.06 children to 1.09 children in the same year.





Conclusion:

In the section on suggestions based on the results, it's crucial to highlight that family-friendly initiatives should integrate cultural and social values that encourage men's participation in household responsibilities. This strategy is vital for addressing gender inequality, which is necessary for creating an environment that supports higher fertility rates. One proposed cultural support package, based on extensive research findings, involves establishing independent government institutions dedicated to family support policies. This initiative aims to alleviate the conflict between domestic and work responsibilities for women. For example, introducing paternity leave for fathers during childbirth allows them to be present with their families during critical moments. Additionally, creating affordable and reliable on-site childcare facilities at workplaces for working mothers can significantly ease their burden. By ensuring trustworthy childcare options are available, mothers can focus on their professional responsibilities without the added stress of finding appropriate care for their children. Furthermore, the proposal includes providing additional wages or subsidies from the government for working women to help cover domestic responsibilities. This initiative would enable service personnel to assist with household tasks at least once a month, providing essential support in managing home affairs and allowing women to balance their work and family commitments more effectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Agent based modeling
• family support policies
• Gender division of domestic labor
• low fertility